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Real-World Lessons · Antifragile Design

On Monday a shipyard in Virginia told two shifts not to come in.

On Monday a shipyard in Virginia told two shifts not to come in.

The yard itself had not broken. Salt left on a downtown substation by last week’s storm met overnight mist, the equipment faulted, and the power went out.

About 6,000 customers lost power. The utility found the fault, cut that piece off, and kept the rest of the system from going with it. The yard still went quiet. First shift and second shift stayed home, except the people marked essential. Shops a short drive away kept working. Third shift was expected back that night.

I have run a company through days like that. Not a shipyard. Same shape. One thing outside the building stops the work inside it, and the morning turns into phone calls.

I would not start with a redesign of the grid. I do not own a substation, and neither did the yard. A second feed is a real project. It is shared with a utility, and it will not be finished before the next coastal storm. I have wasted time on that kind of plan. It feels like leadership. It does not protect Thursday.

As the utility, what I would put on a person’s list is smaller. After a storm, someone walks the gear we do own and washes it down. A name. A done-by time. The salt was already there. The rain only woke it up. If that step is not owned, I already know how the next outage starts.

As the shipyard, the pieces that worked are the ones I would copy. The utility cut the fault off instead of letting it spread. Off-site shops were told to come in, so the whole company did not go dark. Essential people were already named, which meant the call was not an argument in the parking lot. Third shift had a time to return. None of that is clever. It is decided before the event.

I wouldn't build extra capacity. That won't help if it sits on the same feed. A bigger crane still goes dark. A larger floor is just a larger idle shift.

I would write down the work a customer is waiting on this week, and give that work a second place to sit. Another building. A generator on the bay that cannot stop. A supplier who can take a defined slice for 48 hours. The rest can wait.

The line I would drop is the one I have used myself: weather is someone else’s problem. I may not own the wire. I do own the idle people, the pay rules, and the work that does not ship. That split is the lesson. Protect the core I can move. Leave the rest behind.

Originally posted on LinkedIn.
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